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Apr24
U.S. Economy Holds on Durable Good Orders and Fall in Jobless Claims

The weakness of the U.S. dollar helped durable goods orders to increase by 1.5 percent, as foreign buyers grab American products at good prices. So far over the last twelve months the U.S. dollar has dropped by 9 percent against major currencies, which has resulted in a record surge of exports.

Transportation equipment wasn't factored into the 1.5 percent increase in durable good orders.

The other surprise is an announced decrease in unemployment claims from the Labor Department for last week, which was welcome news, as claims dropped to 342,000. There was also a decline of about 65,000 from the existing unemployment rolls, as that dropped to 2.934 million from the 2.999 million the week before.

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Demand for computers, metals and machinery have helped manufacturing stay strong, as in this slowdown the soundness of the global economy has been a key factor in keeping sales robust. Businesses overall are remaining healthy and profitable as well, in spite of the general economic conditions being slower.

So far manufacturing has done better than in past downturns. Even the five-year low of 48.3 for the Institute of Supply Management isn't near the low of 42.1 experienced in February 2001, which preceeded the 2001 recession by a month. An ISM number of 50 is considered the divider between economic contraction or growth.

"Manufacturing is holding up due to strength in the global economy, the weak dollar and the fact that businesses are still pretty profitable," said Gus Faucher, head of macroeconomics at Moody's Economy.com. "Weakness is going to be concentrated in housing."

Concerning housing, sales of new homes dropped to a yearly rate of 526,000. That's the slowest pace since the latter part of 1991. The month before homer sales were at a 575,000 per month level, according to the Commerce Department.

Sales prices of homes also declined by a significant 13.3 percent from 12 months ago, the biggest drop in about 40 years. Even so, the rise in prices of homes was built a lot on speculation, so the drop is more of a correction than it is a real decline in value.

Companies with a strong global presence, especially exporters, did much better during the slowdown, and have been the key factor in the current circumstances not being labeled a recession. In this case, the weaker U.S. dollar has helped them out.

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