
Make no mistake about it, the emergency measures to drop the overnight lending rate by 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve was a move to assuage the market, far more than concerns about a recession. The rate now stands at 3.5 percent, while they also loweredthe discount rate to 4 percent.
As Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ wrote in a note, "I had no idea that back-stopping speculators and hedge funds was part of their mandate. "All the Fed did was prevent a healthy capitulation" in the stock markets.
Others like Jeffrey Gundlach, CIO of TCW Group in Los Angeles said, "My God, the Federal Reserve couldn't wait a week for their meeting? These guys are unbelievably reactive. Clearly they were forced by the markets into this move, which only impairs their credibility."
Both of these reponses are valid. While the Fed evidently wants to be seen as proactive because of the pressures of pundits and falling stock prices, to do it in the way they did does make them look weak and out of control. In other words, it reinforces fears that things are out of control (even if they aren't), rather than standing back and doing the right thing at the right time.
The next meeting, which is scheduled for January 29 and 30, is expected to yield another rate cut as well. That is also expected to be motivated by financial markets rather than actual economic data.
This doesn't mean there isn't a secondary element of a potential recession in mind in connection with this cut, but it wouldn't make any difference if they would have waited until January 29.
Those who have been full of fear, instead of looking at this as a good move, in many cases are now building up even more fear, as the actions of the Fed imply they view things as much worse than acknowledged.
We have to stop being driven by the fear of people in making these decisions. There are a lot of consequences that could come about from doing things like this, as the devaluing of the dollar and rising inflation.
Bernanke has been seen as an unknown and hasn't gained the trust of the financial and business community yet. I don't see this move as doing anything to help that image, or the credibility of the fed.
The simple decision by the fed was to wait until their meeting or prove they're willing to cut rates to placate the financial community. Their decision has shown us they way they are going to go.
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Tracked on: January 25, 2008 2:53 PM | Permalink to Trackback