
In a research note, UBS analyst Neil Currie says he believes Wal-Mart (WMT) will enter the Russian market sometime in the next year or two.
"We believe expansion into Russia rounds out Wal-Mart's 'BRIC' (Brazil, Russia, India and China) exposure," UBS analyst Neil Currie wrote in a note on Thursday.
Currie added the retail giant will probably do it in a similar way they did with China, by buying a minority stake in a local retail chain.
"Similar to its path in China, we believe Wal-Mart may be willing take a low share position in Russia initially for a growing share opportunity in the long-run," he wrote.
This wouldn't be surprising, and it would lay a foundation for the company to then work on expanding their market share in those four key economies.
If that were to happen, as Currie says, Wal-Mart could again turn into an extraordinary long-term investment.
Concerning business and management, a thing to learn from this is in connection with what Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said last October at an analyst meeting, where he identified Russia as a "growing consumer nation."
He was contrasting that with other countries (very few) which pracice savings rather than consumption. Japan is one that comes to mind, one of the reasons Wal-Mart hasn't done as well there.
The point is we must know our market, whether it's consumer or business, and the propensity for them to spend. We must know that whether it's local, regional, national or international.
We must know the pysche of our customers in the current business climate. For example, some regions of the United States will be hit harder by the economic slowdown than others. Some will feel like it's worse than it really is, and some will feel it's better. That will be the deciding factor in how loose their wallets are - individually or corporately.
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