
Even though the housing and auto sectors of the economy continue to weaken, the overall economy continues to slowly grow, according to the Beige Book survey of regional banks by the Federal Reserve.
Of the twelve Federal Reserve districts, seven of them said they are experiencing a "slight increase" in economic activity, with three saying things were on a downturn.
Jeoff Hall, an economist from Thomson IFR Markets said things could have been far worse.
"We expected a more melancholy report than this," he said. "It is a depiction of inarguably weak demand but with the 1.0 pct of easing in the Fed funds rate over
the last four months and an expected 0.50 pct of additional policy accommodation coming at the end of this month, the Beige Book offers some doses of optimism."
The reason things always seem to be conflicting in the reports of the overall economy is because there are strengths and weaknesses operating together at the same time, which causes the differences.
For example, in manufacturing, it depends on what region of the country you're in and what is being manufactured. Some are strong and others very weak; like the auto industry. Because reports on the weaknesses always outnumber what is doing well, the perception of the strength or weakness of the economy can be skewed until the overall picture is taken into account and reported on.
The same is true of retail, where overall reports are grim, but many pockets of the country are doing pretty good, especially those connected to tourism.
When all we hear about are housing problems, the auto industry and the cost of oil, that lends a very bleak outlook indeed. But there are industries also performing strongly like health care, energy, agriculture and tourism. Exports are also doing very well.
What this report really does is simply confirm that the overall economy is still growing, although at a slower pace than in the recent past.
It also shows that some parts of the country are experiencing a lot more pain or gain, depending on the region and what industries are predominant in them.
In other words many people will experience somewhat opposite conditions as we move ahead. Some will feel like they're in a recession, while for others it'll be close to business as usual.
The global economy and falling dollar have contributed to much of the diverse conditions. Even so, we should still see a cut in interest rates from the Fed of probably half a point in their next meeting. The continuing juggling act between stimulating the economy and inflation concerns will remain part of the equation.
Definition of Beige Book from Federal Reserve Web site:
"Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis."
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