"Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window."
When Drucker talks about this, it brings to mind what type of business a company is. Are we industry leaders or followers? Do we set trends or follow them?
The future belongs, in my estimation, to those who create it. It's not something someone can assert and then it happens, like some people attempt to do today.
How do we create the future? We make it what we want it to be through our actions.
We have to be careful in evaluating the future, for we can assume we're talking about huge paradigm shifts, rather than adjusting a few things that can separate us from other businesses. Having said that, both are needed.
The future, as far as business goes, relates to making incremental changes while working on the right things, and also major disruptions where we may change the rules of the game, or the game itself.
In great companies, many times the two are happening at different stages at the same time. We may be improving our existing products or services, while working on totally different concepts that may disrupt our competitors and thus the industry.
Nobody can predict the future, that's the point Drucker is making, and those that try, as his rear-view-mirror analogy points out: rely on the past. The past in no way can tell us where the future is going.
Businesses are fighting to create the future they want as it relates to their purpose. Nobody knows what it will be until the battle has been won, and even that victory can be temporal, as others bring their wares and ideas to the marketplace.
The past isn't a guide to the future, the future is a result of actions taken that consumers embrace and respond to, as far as it relates to business.
Those whose vision of the future captures the imagination of consumers, will be those who will be able to successfully make that future happen. It will still come down to those which not only capture the imagination of people, but can successfully execute their promises to make it a reality.
Other Peter Drucker Resources:
The Man Who Invented Management
Beyond the Information Revolution
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