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Sep 8
Starbucks' Howard Schultz Predicts Gourmet Coffee Bean Shortage Worldwide

Chairman of Starbucks (SBUX) Howard Schultz said on Friday that he believes there will be a shortage of gourmet coffee beans worldwide, as people increasingly develop the taste for the beverage.

He adds this shortage will favor Starbucks over the long haul because of the existing forward contracts in place with coffee growers.

"At the very top of the market where Starbucks plays, I do not believe that others will have access to the quality of coffee that we are buying because we have secured those sources.

"At certain points in the future, the work that we have done over the last 10 years to secure supply and to establish relationships will become a significant competitive advantage," he said.

Schultz sees this as a long-term situation for the top-of-the-line coffee, but for the regular arabica beans, he sees it being more stable across the industry.

Howard%20Schultz%20predicts%20worldwide%20gourmet%20coffee%20bean%20shortage.jpg

What it seems Schultz is asserting is over the short-term, competitors will have access to the more regularly used beans, but for the best coffee, Starbucks has a competitive advantage simply through securing of what's available to the market.

Assuming his assertions are accurate, it would mean they would probably not only a competitive advantage with access to quality coffee beans, but also higher margins along with it, as it would definitely be scarce resource.

For Starbucks it looks like there may be some short-term struggles competitively, as competitors surge into the quality coffee market, over the long haul Starbucks may have wisely sucured the best resources for high margin coffee that will put pressure on competitors.

If that's so, investors will have to be willing to sit on the stock for a long period of time to reap the benefits.

One caveat here: we have to take into account that Schultz is saying these things to make his competitors look weak in this space, so we have to consider that with the information he's communicating.

After reaching $40 a share last year, the company has dropped to about 27 a share recently.

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