
“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.”
If you've ever invested in the market, brokers and perspectus' will always include that the past performance of company or stock doesn't guarantee what will happen in the future.
As far as management goes, past history does play a huge part in assessing its quality, but it's not the only part of the game.
Buffett has said at other times that if a poor company is run by great management, the reputation of the company is what will remain intact. In other
words, even the original textile company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) was admitted to be a poor investment by Buffett, because it was in a declining, dying industry in America that had no real future, even though it had had a great past.
If Buffett had been judged by history at that point in his career, he would probably have been deemed a failure.
History can show how a business leader or manager responded and handled situations, but it can't tell you if the person is working on the right thing at all ... or in the right company.
Tapping into history is a two-edged sword because there are things that need to be learned that time, circumstances and experience help us with. The other side of the sword is that we can possibly linger there too long and hurt the future prospects of our companies or divisions.
History and experience are important and need to be mined for the benefits it offers, but the future is important as well, and we need to keep an eye on both as we go forward. To not look to the past is to put ourselves in the position of repeating the same mistakes over and over again. To not look to the future will cause a business to implode and cease to explore the possibilities before it. Both are crucial tools to a business manager. Buffett uses both.
Other Buffett Resources:
Warren Buffett: The trouble with being a legend
Warren Buffett: 'I told you so'
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